L’Asie contemporaine est née à Berlin

NEW DELHI – Il y a vingt ans, le Mur de Berlin tombait, marquant la fin de la Guerre froide et le début de la dislocation du bloc de l’Est, et sa chute devait présider à une reconfiguration géopolitique du monde. L’Asie, qui connaît depuis un essor économique d’une rapidité et d’une envergure sans équivalent dans l’histoire, est le continent qui en a tiré le meilleur parti.

Pour l’Asie, la première conséquence de la chute du mur de Berlin, c’est que la fin du communisme opère, dans l’ordre international, un renversement des forces: la primauté de l’économique prend le pas sur celle du militaire. Il est vrai que la révolution industrielle et la période qui suit la Seconde Guerre mondiale ont connu, elles aussi, une croissance économique rapide. Mais dans l’après-Guerre froide, c’est la croissance économique elle-même qui détermine de nouveaux rapports de force.

L’année 1989 compte un autre événement significatif, le Massacre de la place Tian’anmen, qui met fin aux manifestations réclamant la démocratie à Pékin. Sans la fin de la Guerre froide, l’Ouest n’aurait pas laissé la Chine s’en tirer à si bon compte. Les Occidentaux lui épargnent au contraire les sanctions commerciales et optent pour une approche pragmatique, en favorisant son insertion dans l’économie globale et son accession aux institutions internationales, par le biais libéralisant de l’investissement étranger et du commerce. Si les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés avaient décidé de frapper les Chinois de sanctions, comme les Cubains et les Birmans, la Chine serait aujourd’hui moins prospère, moins ouverte, et représenterait une menace en puissance.

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