El dilema nuclear de Irán

LOS ÁNGELES – Cuando los días 7 y 8 de noviembre, Estados Unidos y sus aliados reanuden las conversaciones sobre el programa nuclear iraní, comenzará la difícil tarea de convertir la reciente propuesta de Irán en un acuerdo duradero. De los muchos obstáculos que esto supone, uno de los menos analizados tiene que ver con el legado de las iniciativas de desarme nuclear referidas a Libia y Corea del Norte: ambas sientan precedentes que ni Irán ni Estados Unidos desean repetir, pero que no serán fáciles de eludir para ninguna de las partes.

Para Estados Unidos, Corea del Norte es un ejemplo de cómo un país pobre pero ambicioso puede llegar al desarrollo de armas nucleares mediante el recurso de ganar tiempo fingiendo disposición a negociar. Para Irán, la decisión de Muamar El Gadafi de abandonar el programa de armas de destrucción masiva de Libia en 2003 es un ejemplo de cómo un régimen (al que la comunidad internacional seguía repudiando incluso después de la normalización de las relaciones diplomáticas) puede haberse condenado a sí mismo a la caída en 2011 al renunciar a la creación de poder de disuasión nuclear. Un análisis pormenorizado de ambos casos pone en claro los desafíos a los que se enfrentan tanto Irán como sus interlocutores internacionales.

Para la comunidad internacional, el precedente de Corea del Norte es especialmente preocupante porque Irán ha seguido un derrotero muy similar al de Pyongyang. Es inevitable preguntarse si Irán no estará usando la actual ronda de negociaciones como una fachada para ocultar la continuidad de su programa de armas nucleares.

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