Le dilemme nucléaire iranien

LOS ANGELES – Lorsque les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés reprendront les discussions avec la délégation iranienne sur le programme nucléaire de ce pays les 7 et 8 novembre prochain, la tâche difficile de traduire en un accord durable la récente proposition de l’Iran commencera vraiment. Parmi les nombreux obstacles posés à la conclusion d’un accord, l’un des moins souvent abordés est celui de l’historique des efforts de désarmement nucléaire concernant la Libye et la Corée du Nord. Les deux cas soulèvent des questions que ni l’Iran, ni les Etats-Unis ne souhaitent voir se répéter, alors même qu’ils auront de la peine à les éviter.

Pour les Etats-Unis, la Corée du Nord est l’illustration de comment  un pays pauvre, mais ambitieux, a développé la bombe atomique en manipulant les discussions et en gagnant du temps. Pour l’Iran, l’abandon par Kadhafi des armes de destruction massive en 2003 démontre comment un régime, toujours considéré comme un paria par la communauté internationale malgré la normalisation des relations diplomatiques, a sans doute renoncé à sa survie en laissant passer l’occasion de se doter d’une force de dissuasion nucléaire. Approfondir ces deux cas illustre les défis auxquels sont confrontés l’Iran et ses interlocuteurs.

Ce qui rend le précédent nord-coréen particulièrement troublant est à quel point l’Iran s’est inspiré du régime de Pyongyang. On peut donc se demander si l’Iran utilise la série actuelle de négociations comme façade pour continuer à développer des armes nucléaires.

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