Íránské jaderné rozpaky

LOS ANGELES – Až Spojené státy a jejich spojenci obnoví 7.-8. listopadu rozhovory o íránském jaderném programu, začne se vážně řešit naléhavý úkol přetavit nedávnou nabídku Íránu v trvalou dohodu. Té dnes brání mnoho překážek, avšak mezi ty nejméně prozkoumané patří historie snah o jaderné odzbrojení Libye a Korejské lidově demokratické republiky. Oba případy vyvolávají otázky, jejichž opakování si nepřejí Írán ani USA – avšak jimž se obě země jen stěží vyhnou.

Pro USA je Severní Korea dokladem toho, jak chudá, leč ambiciózní země vyvinula bombu tím, že při rozhovorech lavírovala a hrála na čas. Pro Írán je zase zřeknutí se zbraní hromadného ničení libyjským vůdcem Muammarem Kaddáfím v roce 2003 dokladem toho, jak režim, jenž byl mezinárodním společenstvím i po normalizaci diplomatických vztahů stále pokládán za strašáka, možná rezignoval na vlastní přežití, když v roce 2011 upustil od snahy vybudovat jaderné odstrašení. Ponoříme-li se do obou těchto případů hlouběji, zjistíme, jakým problémům budou čelit Írán i jeho mezinárodní protějšky.

Severokorejský precedens je obzvláště znepokojivý kvůli tomu, do jaké míry zatím Írán napodobuje pchjongjangský režim. To přirozeně vyvolává otázky, zda Teherán nevyužívá současného kola jednání jako zástěrky pro pokračující snahu vyvinout jaderné zbraně.

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