欧洲央行的桥太遥远

伯克利—欧元区经济危机正在再次突变吗?如果债务忧虑正在被通缩危险所取代(如最新数据所表明的),那么对欧洲央行来说情况有够棘手——并且没有任何迹象表明欧洲央行做好了准备。

数据值得警惕。10月,欧元区核心通胀(扣除高波动的食品和能源价格后的消费物价指数)年率降至0.8%,为47个月以来最低值,而生产者物价指数下降了0.5%,表明欧洲通缩已经在欧洲经济管道中蔓延。与此同时,10月份M3货币供应增长年率下降1.4%,而9月也只有2%,流向私人部门的贷款量同比下降2.9%。所有这些都显著表明,欧洲央行在12月会议上的最好做法是坚持。

那么,好央行应该做什么?首先,它应该专注于保持合适的货币条件,不再与政府谈判政策条件。央行的核心使命是将通胀保持在合理水平,而不是与希腊等国家讨论结构性改革,改革谈判最好留给欧盟委员会和国际货币基金组织(IMF)。

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