Le pari des BRICS

BERKELEY – L’annonce du mois de juillet relative à l’accord convenu pour l’établissement d’une « Nouvelle banque de développement » (NBD) et la conclusion d’un accord relatif au « Fonds de réserve d’urgence » (FRU) a constitué une formidable opération de communication pour les chefs d’État des BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud). Le triomphe d’une telle photo de groupe arrangeait particulièrement le président brésilien Dilma Rousseff, au lendemain de la triste défaite de son équipe nationale à la Coupe du monde, sur fonds d’économie en berne, tout comme elle servait les intérêts du président russe Vladimir Poutine, compte tenu des réactions internationales entreprises face aux agissements de son gouvernement en appui des forces rebelles d’Ukraine.

Cet accord a également été l’occasion pour les cinq pays de réitérer leur mécontentement à l’égard de la Banque mondiale, du Fonds monétaire international, ainsi que du rôle du dollar dans le système monétaire mondial. Les BRICS ne détiennent que 11% des voix au FMI, alors même qu’ils représentent plus de 20% de l’activité économique globale. Le Congrès américain refuse cependant toujours de ratifier l’accord convenu en 2010, destiné à rectifier le déséquilibre de cette situation. Les États-Unis ne montrent par ailleurs aucun signe de volonté de renoncement à ce privilège anachronique que constitue leur pouvoir de nomination du président de la Banque mondiale.

Pendant ce temps, la part du dollar dans les réserves de change globales demeure supérieure à 60%, tandis que le dollar entre en jeu dans 85% des transactions de réserves de change internationales. Les États sous-représentés étant réticents à approuver les prudentes lignes de crédit du FMI, les banques centrales les plus en quête de dollars ne peuvent les obtenir qu’auprès de la Réserve fédérale. La Fed s’est révélée relativement franche dans l’octroi de swaps de dollars au cours de la crise de 2008 ; rien ne garantit cependant qu’elle agira de la sorte à l’avenir.

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