Аскетичный рост?

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ. Реакцией немецкого правительства на призыв недавно избранного президента Франции Франсуа Олланда к более ориентированной на рост политике было заявление, что не должно быть никаких изменений в программе строгой экономии еврозоны. Скорее всего, к уже существующим программам могут быть «добавлены» отдельные меры поддержки роста, такие как увеличение объемов кредитования Европейского инвестиционного банка и выпуск совместно гарантированных «проектных» облигаций для финансирования конкретных инвестиций.

Многие в Германии и за ее пределами заявляют, что необходимы и строгость, и больший рост, и что более пристальное внимание к экономическому росту не означает снижения строгости. Драма продолжающегося кризиса еврозоны сосредоточила внимание на Европе, однако дебаты о политике строгой экономии имеют более обширные последствия, в том числе и для Соединенных Штатов.

Должны быть установлены три основных момента. Во-первых, в условиях массовой безработицы и избыточных мощностей объемы выпуска продукции в краткосрочном периоде в первую очередь определяются спросом, а не предложением. В странах-членах еврозоны на национальном уровне можно проводить только фискальную политику, поскольку денежно-кредитную политику контролирует Европейский центральный банк. Так что да, более быстрому экономическому росту действительно требуется более медленное сокращение бюджетного дефицита.

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