Vietnam street and merchant.

短暂的亚洲世纪?

东京—英国马克思主义历史学家埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆(Eric Hobsbawm)曾经将1789年法国大革命至1914年第一次世界大战爆发期间的这一段时间称为“延长的十九世纪”。十多年前,人们开始预测“亚洲世纪”即将出现,其背后的主要动力是不可阻挡的中国,而美国看似不可避免的衰退则提供了助力。但中国经济陷入了动荡,重要的东亚“小龙”经济体(如马来西亚和泰国等)颓势尽显,甚至新加坡也面临着经济模式是否可行的问题,难道这个“亚洲世纪”即将夭折?

政治和经济麻烦从东向西困扰着整个地区。在印度和印度尼西亚,莫迪和维多多分别当选总理和总统让人们寄希望于他们为如今看起来步履蹒跚经济改革带来新活力。类似地,在韩国,连续两位总统都没能兑现遏制财阀(家族控制的企业集团)、从而释放企业家精神的动物精神的承诺。而在日本,尽管首相安倍晋三实施了深刻的改革,但仍未能重振经济活力,而解决因人口快速老化而带来的人口问题的措施甚至尚未开始。

还有其他许多严重的政治和安全挑战,包括美国和中国之间日益严重的战略对峙、整个地区民族主义复兴的信号,以及香港“一国两制”政府模式的崩溃趋势。更令人不安的是,中国在东海和南海以及印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦大肆主张领土权。而最危险的情况也许是与世隔绝又不可预测的朝鲜政权正在金正恩冒进的暴力领导下变得比以往任何时候都更加不稳定。

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