Следующая ось Азии

СЕУЛ. В прошлом месяце лидеры Китая, Японии и Южной Кореи договорились о начале в этом году трехсторонних переговоров по заключению соглашения о зоне свободной торговле (ЗСТ). Если переговоры завершатся успехом, то глобальную торговую карту необходимо будет перерисовать. ЗСТ, которая включает, соответственно, вторую, третью и двенадцатую крупнейшие экономики (по паритету покупательной способности на 2011 год), с населением в 1,5 миллиарда человек, затмит Европейский Союз и страны Североамериканского соглашения о свободной торговле НАФТА (Соединенные Штаты, Канада и Мексика).

Действительно, Северо-Восточная Азия станет третьей основной осью региональной экономической интеграции после ЕС и НАФТА. До нынешнего дня область не могла институализировать экономическое сотрудничество так же энергично, как Европа и Северная Америка. Но если предложения, которые обсуждались в прошлом месяце в Пекине, будут реализованы, то в результате эта ЗСТ может превзойти НАФТА по степени интеграции и значения для мировой экономики.

Кроме того, образование Китаем, Японией и Южной Кореей ЗСТ, скорее всего, вызовет цепную реакцию. Например, импульс может распространиться на юг и стимулировать АСЕАН, которая имеет двухсторонние соглашения о свободной торговле с каждой из трех стран, присоединиться к группе. Такой поворот событий был бы эквивалентен созданию Восточно-Азиатской зоны свободной торговли, которую АСЕАН+3 предусматривала около десятилетия назад. Если это произойдет, то другие страны ‑ Австралия, Новая Зеландия и, самое главное, Индия ‑ могут попытаться вскочить на подножку.

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