Le nouveau modèle de croissance asiatique

MILAN – Emmenée par l’Asie, la part des marchés émergents dans l’économie globale n’a cessé d’augmenter au cours des dernières décennies. Pour les pays d’Asie – et en particulier pour ses géants en plein développement, la Chine et l’Inde – la croissance durable ne relève plus du défi global, mais de la stratégie de croissance nationale. Cela entraine un profond changement de la structure globale des incitants au développement durable.

Durant les toutes prochaines décennies, pratiquement l’entièreté de la croissance mondiale de la consommation énergétique, l’urbanisation, l’utilisation automobile, le trafic aérien et les émissions de carbone proviendra des économies émergentes. D’ici la moitié de ce siècle, le nombre de personnes vivant dans ce qui seront alors des économies riches passera d’un milliard aujourd’hui à 4,5 milliards. Le PIB mondial, qui s’élève aujourd’hui à environ 60 milliards de dollars, est appelé à tripler (au minimum) dans les trente prochaines années.

Si les économies émergentes cherchent à obtenir les niveaux de revenus des pays avancés en suivant les mêmes recettes que leurs prédécesseurs, l’impact sur les ressources naturelles et l’environnement serait énorme, risqué et probablement désastreux. Le dépassement d’un ou plusieurs points de non retour mettrait plus que probablement fin au processus de manière brutale. La sécurité énergétique et le coût de l’énergie, la qualité de l’eau et de l’air, le climat, les écosystèmes sur terre et dans les océans, la sécurité alimentaire et bien d’autres se retrouveraient menacés.

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