El Modelo Asiático de Crecimiento es Todavía Verdadero

Con el proverbial beneficio (¡y vergüenza!) de la percepción tardía, es claro que los patrones de crecimiento que se dieron durante el último medio siglo no fueron bien entendidos y rara vez (si acaso) fueron pronosticados por los economistas. En la década de 1960, en el preciso momento en el que los tigres económicos asiáticos empezaban a despegar, por ejemplo, el ganador del Premio Nobel, Gunnar Myrdal, escribió su The Asian Drama para diagnosticar las causas de la pobreza asiática y para explicar por qué su pobreza parecía ser inextirpable.

De forma simultánea, se desarrolló un fuerte consenso entre los economistas y los encargados del diseño de las políticas que favorecía las políticas de sustitución de importaciones que entonces perseguían diversos países, incluyendo India, Argentina, Brasil, Egipto y Turquía. Después de arruinar a sus adherentes, esas políticas están ahora completamente desacreditadas.

El punto clave en esto es que no sólo los economistas se equivocaron tanto, sino que casi nadie logró hacer bien las cosas. Consideremos el fenomenal crecimiento de Taiwán. Nadie lo predijo. En efecto, el "milagro" económico japonés pasó desapercivido para la profesión económica hasta que Norman Macrae de The Economist publicó su seminal artículo "Consider Japan" en 1962.

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