Barrie Maguire

El duro camino de Asia

MANILA – El año próximo traerá importantes retos y nuevas responsabilidades en lo político, económico y social para el desarrollo de Asia. El camino hacia un crecimiento sostenible e incluyente será complejo, pero también traerá grandes oportunidades para Asia y el resto del mundo.

Llevamos ya cinco años en la Gran Recesión, y en las economías avanzadas sigue siendo difícil lograr la recuperación. Los gobernantes europeos deben adoptar duras decisiones para solucionar la crisis del euro y dar nuevo impulso al crecimiento. Y, si bien Estados Unidos comienza a mostrar signos de recuperación económica, el país se enfrenta a un estancamiento político en torno al llamado "abismo fiscal". De hecho, aunque los principales indicadores son más sólidos que hace un año, los riesgos no han hecho más que aumentar.

En Asia, la prudencia fiscal permitió emprender las medidas de estímulo necesarias para restablecer el crecimiento económico global en 2010, pero la transformación económica lograda en las últimas décadas ha llegado a un punto de inflexión. A pesar de que unas cuantas economías de bajos ingresos están alcanzando al resto, es poco probable que regresen los años de crecimiento del PIB en los dobles dígitos (especialmente en China e India), debido a la conjunción entre el anémico entorno externo y las debilidades internas.

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