Barrie Maguire

Asiens harter Weg

MANILA – Im nächsten Jahr stehen die Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer Asiens vor bedeutenden Herausforderungen und neuer Verantwortung – politischer, wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Art. Der Weg hin zu nachhaltigem, umfassenden Wirtschaftswachstum wird zwar schwierig, aber er bietet Asien und dem Rest der Welt auch aufregende Möglichkeiten.

Im fünften Jahr der Großen Rezession bleibt die Erholung in den Industrieländern weiterhin schwach. Um die Eurokrise zu lösen und das Wachstum wiederzubeleben, müssen die europäischen Politiker schwere Entscheidungen treffen. Und obwohl in den Vereinigten Staaten wieder Anzeichen wirtschaftlicher Erholung erkennbar sind, steht das Land aufgrund der sogenannten “Fiskalklippe” vor einer Blockade. Tatsächlich haben sich trotz stärkerer Indikatoren als vor einem Jahr die Risiken lediglich intensiviert.

In Asien waren die Stimulierungsmaßnahmen, die 2010 zur Wiederaufnahme des globalen Wirtschaftswachstums nötig waren, im Rahmen einer vernünftigen Haushaltsführung angemessen. Aber der wirtschaftliche Wandel der letzten Jahrzehnte hat nun einen Scheideweg erreicht. Auch wenn ein paar Länder mit niedrigem Einkommen noch aufholen, sind angesichts der anämischen externen Umgebung die Jahre zweistelliger BIP-Wachstumsraten wahrscheinlich vorbei – insbesondere in China und Indien.

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