Dean Rohrer

El duopolio en duelo de Asia

TOKIO – En Asia, hoy en día, existen dos potencias económicas de estatura global, Japón y China. Pero el equilibrio de poder económico entre ambas está cambiando, y rápido. En algún momento de este año, el PBI de China superará al de Japón (si ya no lo ha hecho). Es más, la impronta económica de China se está propagando rápidamente en toda Asia y el resto del mundo.

La mayoría de los países asiáticos se están recuperando fuertemente de la recesión global que se desató tras el colapso de Lehman Brothers en 2008. La tasa de crecimiento de China el año pasado fue del 8,7%, y más del 10% en los dos últimos trimestres. Los países vecinos, como Corea del Sur y Singapur, también están registrando tasas muy altas de crecimiento. La única excepción es Japón, donde una falta de liderazgo político y un conocimiento limitado de economía básica entre los ministros de gobierno socavan las perspectivas de crecimiento a mediano plazo.

Si bien la capacidad de China de mantener un crecimiento elevado durante la “crisis Lehman” fue una notable hazaña en materia de gestión económica, tres cambios importantes en China tienen implicancias geopolíticas para la región y el mundo.

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