Argentinské lekce

Kolaps argentinské ekonomiky vyústil v dosud největsí státní platební neschopnost. Odborníci se shodují, že jde jen o dalsí z krachů záchranných programů Mezinárodního měnového fondu, v nichž se proplýtvaly miliony dolarů, které vsak nikdy žádnou ekonomiku nezachránily. O podstatě tohoto neúspěchu se vsak vedou spory. Někteří lidé tvrdí, že MMF byl přílis mírný; jiní zas, že byl moc tvrdý.

Ti, kdo viní MMF, mají za to, že problém si zhýralým a zkorumpovaným utrácením způsobila sama Argentina. Přesouvat takto vinu je ovsem zavádějící: zadluženost země lze chápat jako důsledek ekonomických chyb za poslední desetiletí. Abychom se podobným chybám do budoucna mohli vyhnout, musíme porozumět tomu, co a jak se Argentině vlastně vymklo z rukou.

První problémy přinesla v 80. letech hyperinflace. K jejímu sražení bylo potřeba upravit očekávání; to mělo zajistit ,,ukotvení`` místní měny k dolaru v poměru jedna ku jedné. Byla to vlastně obměna zlatého standardu. Bude-li inflace pokračovat, skutečný směnný kurz země se začne zhodnocovat, poptávka po exportu klesne, zvýsí se nezaměstnanost, což sníží mzdové a cenové tlaky. Dokud bude závazek vůči tomuto směnnému systému věrohodný, bude věrohodný také závazek zastavit inflaci.

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