El viaje turbulento de Argentina

SANTIAGO – “Abrochen sus cinturones porque habrá turbulencias”, advirtió el capitán desde la cabina. Estábamos a punto de entrar al espacio aéreo argentino.

Los inversionistas que quieren hacer negocios en Argentina han recibido desde siempre advertencias similares. Este es el país que los académicos estudian cuando quieren entender las crisis financieras. En 2001, la mayor de esas crisis quebró el sistema bancario local y provocó que el gobierno argentino suspendiera el pago de su deuda. La economía sufrió una enorme contracción del 18% y la tasa de desempleo alcanzó un máximo superior al 22%.

Después de un período de calma que ha durado una década, por estos días regresan a Argentina las advertencias sombrías. Las proyecciones para la economía mundial se han vuelto pesimistas y en Argentina, cuya economía depende de las exportaciones, los economistas tienen más de un motivo de preocupación. Itaú, el banco más grande de América Latina, estima un crecimiento del PIB argentino de apenas 3.2% para el próximo año, lo que representa una disminución abrupta respecto al 6% de 2011.

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