Paul Lachine

¿Estamos preparados para una economía mundial multipolar?

WASHINGTON, DC – En un momento en que la economía global se ve afectada por una crisis de confianza, desequilibrios estructurales y perspectivas de crecimiento apagado, mirar diez años para adelante para predecir el curso del desarrollo exige un trabajo cuidadoso y algo más que sagacidad. Lo que se necesita es una estrategia multifacética que combine un sentido de la historia con un análisis meticuloso de las fuerzas actuales, como el cambio en el equilibrio del crecimiento global hacia el mundo emergente.

Un pronóstico de esta naturaleza también exige entender cómo las economías avanzadas aceptan ese cambio, y cómo el sistema monetario internacional se ajustará en consecuencia. Tras haber estudiado estos factores, creemos que la economía mundial está al borde de un cambio transformador –la transición hacia un orden económico mundial multipolar.

A lo largo de la historia, se trazaron y se volvieron a trazar paradigmas de poder económico de acuerdo con el ascenso y la caída de aquellos países mejor equipados para impulsar el crecimiento global y ofrecer estímulo a la economía global. La multipolaridad –vale decir, más de dos polos de crecimiento dominantes- a veces fue una característica clave de la economía mundial. Pero en ningún momento en la historia moderna los países en desarrollo estuvieron a la vanguardia de un sistema económico multipolar.

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