Paul Lachine

Готовы ли мы к многополярной мировой экономике?

ВАШИНГТОН. Для того чтобы в наше время, когда глобальная экономика страдает от кризиса доверия, структурных дисбалансов и слабых перспектив экономического роста, взглянуть вперёд на десять лет для прогнозирования хода дальнейшего развития, требуется тщательное моделирование и нечто большее, чем проницательность. Для этого потребуется многосторонний подход, сочетающий чувство истории с внимательным анализом сегодняшних сил, таких как смещение баланса глобального экономического роста в сторону развивающихся стран.

Подобное прогнозирование также требует понимания того, как развитые страны борются с данным смещением, и того, как в результате этого изменится международная валютная система. Изучив данные факторы, мы считаем, что мировая экономика находится на краю трансформационного изменения – перехода к многополярному мировому экономическому устройству.

В течение всей истории разные парадигмы экономической мощи возникали и изменялись в зависимости от возвышения или упадка тех стран, которые были лучше всего оснащены для стимулирования глобального экономического роста. Многополярность, т.е. более двух доминирующих полюсов экономического роста, временами являлась ключевой особенностью мировой экономики. Но ещё ни разу в современной истории развивающиеся страны не выходили на передовую линию многополярной экономической системы.

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