flowers growing near mosque Poritsky via Flickr

Экономический рост после Арабской весны

КЕМБРИДЖ (США) – Пять лет спустя после начала восстаний Арабской весны Египет, Иордания, Марокко и Тунис добились приемлемого уровня политической стабильности. Однако их экономический рост остаётся слабым; Международный валютный фонд ожидает, что в этом году темпы роста не превысят 1,5% на душу населения. Учитывая огромный потенциал догоняющего роста в регионе и изобилие молодой рабочей силы, невозможно не задаться вопросом, почему так происходит.

Одно объяснение очевидно: несмотря на значительный прогресс в создании стабильных правительств, в этих странах сохраняются политические риски, которые отпугивают частных инвесторов. Однако объёмы частных инвестиций были умеренными и до восстаний 2011 года, и тогда подобные риски уже были высоки. Ясно, что в этом сюжете должно быть что-то ещё.

Взгляд на недавнюю экономическую историю этих стран позволяет глубже понять суть проблемы. Рыночная экономика является сравнительно новым явлением для стран Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки. Она возникла лишь после 1980-х годов, когда модель государственной командной экономики рухнула под грузом своей неэффективности (и возникших из-за этого долгов). Однако в отличие от стран Латинской Америки и Восточной Европы арабские государства либерализовали экономику без либерализации политики. Авторитарные правители, поддерживаемые западными державами, твёрдо удерживали власть.

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