flowers growing near mosque Poritsky via Flickr

Wirtschaftswachstum nach dem Arabischen Frühling

CAMBRIDGE – Fünf Jahre nach Beginn des Arabischen Frühlings haben Ägypten, Jordanien, Marokko und Tunesien ein vertretbares Maß an politischer Stabilität erreicht. Das Wirtschaftswachstum ist dennoch weiterhin schwach und der Internationale Währungsfonds rechnet nicht damit, dass das Expansionstempo in diesem Jahr zu mehr als 1,5% realem BIP-Wachstum pro Kopf führen wird. In Anbetracht des großen Aufholpotenzials und der jungen Arbeitskräfte in der Region muss man sich fragen, warum das so ist.

Eine naheliegende Erklärung ist, dass diese Länder, trotz bedeutender Fortschritte beim Aufbau stabiler Regierungen, weiterhin politischen Risiken unterliegen, die private Investoren abschrecken. Doch der Anteil privater Investitionen war schon vor Beginn der Aufstände 2011 gering, da Risiken dieser Art bereits vorhanden waren. Es muss also noch mehr dahinterstecken.

Eine Betrachtung der jüngeren wirtschaftlichen Vergangenheit dieser Länder gewährt Einblick in das Problem. Marktwirtschaften sind relativ neu im Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika und sind erst nach den 1980er-Jahren entstanden, als das Modell staatlich gelenkten Wirtschaftswachstums unter der Last seiner Leistungsschwächen (und entstandenen Schulden) kollabierte. Anders als Lateinamerika oder Osteuropa liberalisierten arabische Länder ihre Volkswirtschaften, ohne ihre Politik zu liberalisieren. Von westlichen Mächten unterstützt, blieb alle Staatsgewalt weiter fest in der Hand von Autokraten.

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