¿Otro shock petrolero?

El conflicto en el Medio Oriente (Palestina contra Israel en este momento, e Iraq a continuación) crea serios riesgos para el crecimiento y la estabilidad financiera. Para entender la severidad de estos riesgos analicemos primero lo que es poco probable que suceda.

A pesar de lo aparatoso de sus posturas, ni Iraq ni Irán montarán un embargo petrolero efectivo en contra de los EU. En primer lugar, su fijación de oponerse a Estados Unidos no incluye sacrificar las ventas de petróleo que les son esenciales para mantener trabajando a sus economías maltrechas. Ambos países reconocen que si se niegan a venderle petróleo a Estados Unidos, otros países (Rusia y México) llenarán el vacío. Por ello, un embargo petrolero Irán-Iraq está destinado a no ser efectivo. Lo único que sucederá es que perderán dinero.

Incluso Saddam es lo suficientemente listo para evitar esta trampa, así que él y los ayatolas en Irán seguirán vociferando y amenazando y así harán que los precios del petróleo suban un poco. Nada más serio que eso. Para sus espectadores árabes, amenazar es una prueba de liderazgo casi tan válida como el hacer algo realmente.

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