Další ropný šok?

Konflikt na Středním Východě - dnes Palestina versus Izrael, zítra Irák - představuje obrovské riziko pro růst a finanční stabilitu. Abychom pochopili, nakolik jsou tato rizika vážná, vyjděme z toho, k čemu zřejmě nedojde.

Írán ani Irák přes všechny řečnické výlevy nevyhlásí vůči USA faktické embargo. To, že stojí proti Americe, totiž ještě neznamená, že se ochotně vzdají nezanedbatelných tržeb z prodeje ropy, díky nimž jejich zchátralé ekonomiky jakžtakž fungují. Obě země jsou si dobře vědomy, že pokud odmítnou Americe prodávat ropu, na jejich místo okamžitě nastoupí další země (Rusko a Mexiko). Íránsko-irácké ropné embargo by se tedy minulo účinkem. Jeho jediným výsledkem by totiž bylo, že tyto země přijdou o peníze.

I Saddám je dost chytrý na to, aby věděl, že se do této pasti nesmí nechat chytit. On a íránští ajatolláhové zaujmou pozice a budou řečnit, a tak se jim podaří ceny ropy trochu zvednout. Nic víc. Pro jejich arabské diváky je řečnění téměř stejně dobrým důkazem vůdcovských schopností, jako kdyby opravdu něco dělali.

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