阻止俄罗斯从叙利亚开始

华盛顿—从某种意义上说,解决乌克兰危机的方法在于叙利亚。美国总统奥巴马应该表明他能够在某些状态下下达军事进攻的命令,而不只是秘密的无人机打击和隐蔽行动。其结果不但将改变大马士革,也将改变莫斯科的战略算盘,更不用说北京和东京了。

许多人认为,去年8月奥巴马在威胁对叙利亚发动导弹袭击的基础上有所退让,这使得俄罗斯总统普京放胆吞并了克里米亚。但更有可能普京是因为国内原因才吞并了克里米亚——为了将俄罗斯人的注意力从国家经济不景气上移开,也是为了一雪亲欧示威者推翻他所支持的乌克兰政府的耻辱。

不管普京的初始动机如何,现在,他是在洞察各种环境状况的情况下行动。他正在进行权衡:一边进一步肢解乌克兰、将其中一部分并入俄罗斯或称为俄罗斯附庸国;另一边是更严厉、更全面的经济制裁带来的痛苦。西方动用武力,而不只是向倒霉的乌克兰军队提供武器,这不在普京的考虑范围内。

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