改革中国的双轨经济

香港—海外媒体有关中国经济正再次面临硬着陆风险的讨论越来越多。房地产泡沫、地方政府债务和难以驾驭的影子银行被认定为潜在巨大金融风险的源头,使政府在化解劳动力成本上涨、信贷过度、污染严重、腐败横行、税收制度落后和国际竞争不断升温等挑战时增加了难度与复杂性。每一个改革的转折点都伴随着潜在的额外风险。

任何应对经济减速风险的战略都必须考虑中国经济的双轨特征。一方面,中国的一些城市日益现代化并融入全球经济。中国最具活力的十七个城市已经进入了世界银行所定义的高收入行列,他们合计占11%的全国人口和30%的GDP。中国也即将取代美国成为世界第一大电子商务市场。

另一方面,中国一半的人口仍生活在农村,大部分收入来自务农。根据万事达公司(MasterCard)的数据,中国25%的消费支出仍然使用现金,这表明中国的非正规经济比人们所预测的更为庞大及强劲。

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