Chris Van Es

解剖一场被贻误了的革命

当前发生在伊朗统治者和民众之间的冲突,实际上源自于两种互为矛盾之力的正面碰撞。这些年来,伊朗公众的态度日渐自由化,而与此同时,政府权力却从保守实用主义者处传到了更为好战的伊斯兰原教旨主义者手里。而从伊朗神职人员之中最重要的团体(“战斗教士协会”)处发出的要求废除选举结果的呼吁,则堪称改革派和实用主义保守派集团的最新反击。

在伊斯兰革命爆发30年后,伊朗人显然已变得更自由化,对宗教的态度也日益开放。分别在2000年和2005年进行的两场各涵盖2500名成年伊朗人的现场调查清楚地揭示了这一趋势。仅仅相隔5年,“非常同意”民主制是最佳政府组织形式的受访者比例就从20%增加到31%。

同样地,在关于性别平等的一系列问题上——包括领导人性别,高等教育平等权以及妻子行为守则方面——统计数字也向着好的趋势发展。当认为爱情是婚姻基础的人的比例从49%增加到69%之时,依赖父母之命来结为夫妻的比例则从41%降至24%。在2005年的调查中,认为自己“首先是伊朗人”而不是“首先是穆斯林”的人的比例也比2000年显著增加。

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