spence130_Jon CherryGetty Images_early voting US

Who Will Win the US Presidential Election?

Oct 31, 2020 Michael Spence and David W. Brady

If the latest polls are any indication, Joe Biden is on track to win the popular vote in the upcoming US presidential election by a substantial margin, and an Electoral College reversal of that outcome, like in 2016, is unlikely. But the polls have been wrong before, including in 2016.

MILAN/STANFORD – In late July, opinion polls clearly indicated that US President Donald Trump had lost ground to Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger in the upcoming presidential election, owing primarily to his administration’s mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Trump’s fortunes have not improved; if anything, they have deteriorated further. Now, Trump appears set not only to lose the popular vote on November 3, but also to fail to pull off an Electoral College upset, as he did in 2016.

Start with party affiliations. As Table 1 shows, since the 2016 election, the Democratic Party’s ranks have grown by 6%, compared to just under 3% for Republicans. Self-identified independents declined by 8%. Among those who still identify as independents, the share of those leaning either left or right has changed little.

Moreover, as Table 2 shows, perceptions of Trump’s management of the COVID-19 crisis have declined considerably since March, and even since July, especially among moderate Republicans, Democrats, and independents – three groups whose votes are decisive in battleground states. Trump’s overall approval rating has also declined, though not quite as much.

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Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
156 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Senior Advisor to General Atlantic, and Chairman of the firm’s Global Growth Institute. He serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (Macmillan Publishers, 2012).

David W. Brady

Writing for PS since 2012
8 Commentaries

David W. Brady is Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 15 Comments on this article

alex Finch Nov 4, 2020

As I wrote earlier, most research scientists resign because they eventually find their work generally unproductive, as opposed to small business owners, who actually contribute to a higher standard of living and higher GDP. More academics should try running a small business, before they lecture about how and who should be running the economy. University professors and academics should be ashamed of their meddling into politics. As Ken Langone of Home Depot just explained after Election Day, for years Democrats throw absolutely everything at Trump, yet still couldn’t take much away. The academics, bloated with self-importance predicting a Blue Wave. Biden „on track to win by a substantial margin“....... just nonsense. Many scientific breakthroughs are made by chance, not intelligence, with most scientific research ending up totally unproductive. If small businesses were run like universities, the economy would collapse. Republicans don’t tell professors how to run their universities, yet most academics want to tell business people how to run the economy. This post will probably end up another one to be blocked.
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arsalan ahmed Nov 3, 2020

President Trump completely mirrors the assertive implementation of US interests (in whatever way one defines these) even at the cost of multilateralism, that makes his journey easier for the next term as well.
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David Lentz Nov 3, 2020

Whether Biden wins or Trump people will stay pay income taxes. It was a fellow named Woodrow Wilson that ended America as a nation with free men with the income tax. Neither party proposes ending the income tax to free the people. So according to the original constitution they are all anti american and our government is illegitimate
I agree with Frederick Douglass
An involuntary income tax is slavery
Let people voluntarily contribute if they so choose. USA military can be funded like the Salvation Army by charity and patriotic donations
Forced donations are not patriotic
That’s why taxpayers are never thanked for their service
But the leeches who bleed the workers to death are thanked for their service
It is salt in the wound
Also I don’t see any of these so called patriotic militia demanding their freedom from taxation
They know nothing about freedom
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David Lentz Nov 1, 2020

I sadly have spent time watching this election. America is in serious decline. Trump would push it over the edge if he wins. As Nietzsche said if a structure is flawed it’s better to knock it down. Putin supposedly has worked hard for this outcome. Revenge is sweet. Hilarious
Resentiment is a powerful force and can tear america apart. An ignorant dummy gets the same number of votes as an informed genius. And America has many more ignorant people full of resentment. And both parties support capitalist realism
So let’s see if more people vote for the thumb in the eye of decorum
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alex Finch Oct 31, 2020

Let’s say you are right and the Democrats win, wouldn’t it be helpful to explain to Americans how Socialism really works? I grew up in three different countries, Australia, Germany and Austria, and I always wondered why Democrats don’t win ALL the time. All the government department workers, teachers, healthcare workers, unions, all the lazy people, disabled people, all the pensioners..... wouldn’t they all vote Democrat? In a Socialist System you don’t have to worry about getting a job, or having an income, or healthcare insurance, you get looked after by others if you are poor. In Socialist Austria, a poor disabled pensioner who never had an income can get an ambulance to take him or her to the dentist and home again, all paid for by the taxpayers. Why work and save for retirement? The only people that always complain in socialist Europe are Small Business owner's. I had an owner of a small seasonal hotel in Austria tell me only yesterday, she again couldn’t get any decent cleaning staff all summer, even with 10% of the workforce currently out of work. Try getting a plumber. Under socialism, people don’t have to work if they don’t want to, and they still are able to live a reasonably decent life. It also explains why 4-Star hotels in Europe look like 3-Star hotels in Capitalist countries, but cost as much as 5-Star hotels (higher taxes). It explains why for example all new apartments in Nice France cost min. €1.000 a sq. ft. I believe if you really want to help young Americans, once Biden takes over, WARN them NEVER TO START A SMALL BUSINESS, instead try to get a Government job, then vote Democrat every time.
- Mirek Fatyga Nov 1, 2020
  
  you have a bit of an obsession with Socialism which is, kind of, so last century. I grew up in the actual State Socialism. Nothing that Democrats in the US are proposing remotely resembles that system. Henry Ford put it best, by saying that workers have to make enough money to buy their own products. It is not complicated. The Cold War contest was not between Communism and Capitalism, but between State Socialism and Managed Capitalism. In the latter, the State intervenes in the markets to ensure that workers make enough money to buy their own products, since workers generally are at a disadvantage in conflict with the Capital. The "Reagan/Thatcher" revolution abandoned this role of the state and replaced labor income with debt as a solution. We are in end stages of this experiment, the economy is filled with debt to a point when you can no longer credibly create more of it. Hence, zero interest rates forever, which increasingly does nothing except to produce asset inflation, worsening income polarization.
  
  As far as small business goes: think of the benefits that a single payer health care system would bring to the small business creation. When you make a decision whether you want to take the plunge, weighing risks and benefits, health insurance is no longer an issue. You do not get stuck in a job that you hate, just because they give you health insurance, and you are worried what happens if someone in your family gets sick. This is just an example.
  
  Finally, where I live, there are a lot of people with money. Status cars that these people are buying? Mostly German, my friend. Tesla has made some inroads, but BMW still rules. These people are voting with their pocketbooks ...
  - alex Finch Nov 1, 2020
    
    You criticize Mrs Thatcher. I believe she was the greatest leader Europe ever produced. When she came to power, only the rich could buy and own stocks in Europe, and insider-trading was actually legal and rampant, many socialist politicians and their cronies got mysteriously wealthy. Workers could not buy shares in the company they worked for or in any other company. Thatcher was the first leader in Europe to change that!!!. She made the Stock Market accessible to everyone! Reluctantly the rest of Europe, the Socialist governments, soon had to follow suite and the Stock Markets in Europe became accessible to everyone after 1990, company dealings became transparent, insider trading then made illegal. Workers could not only „buy their own products“ as you say, but actually invest in the businesses they worked for, become part owners! Thatcher did much more for workers, than any socialist government in Europe. Trump likewise has also done much more for America than any Democrat yet seems to realize.
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- Annette Kralendijk Oct 31, 2020
  
  Interesting comment, Alex. Germany would be the example you use with which I am most familiar. As compared to the US, Germany lacks the small business engine that powers the US in many ways. It is much more difficult to set up a small business in Germany than it is in the US and entrepreneurship is embryonic compared to the US.
  
  There also is less focus on controlling one’s own destiny in Germany. While many Americans view government jobs as lucrative sinecures for the non talented, Germans view them as a goal. Jobs you can’t be fired from are great places to hide if you don’t have much talent or want to work hard.
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- Lester Soss Oct 31, 2020
  
  Mr.Finch, I think you missed the point of this column. It was simply to examine the probabilities of a Biden win. No where do the authors claim that Biden ought to win. I would be interested in why you believe their analysis is wrong, but that would involve looking at their numbers and methods-something you haven't done.
  
  I am also confused by your use of the word Socialism. It sounds as if it is shorthand for "safety net", which you seem to be adamantly opposed.
  
  I do take issue with your exaltation of small business. I'm not sure how much they really add to the economy or society. They might be simply a societal subsidized employment scheme to soak up the excess workforce which the capitalist system is unable to employ.
  Can't find a job in a research lab, just start a hotel serving the rich. The rest of society will pick up the real cost of running the business (such as, providing the roadways, health insurance, protection of food, etc.).
  
  Ask yourself this, if an asteroid were hurling toward a collision with the earth, or a pandemic was sweeping across the globe, what would save humanity? Would it be all those scientists working in government labs (or private labs subsidized by the government i.e.people) or would it be 4-star hotel owners?
  - alex Finch Oct 31, 2020
    
    Mr. Soss, It sounds like you don’t stay in hotels, or go to restaurants, nor cafes? At least they didn’t produce the Coronavirus, a science lab did! Before starting a small business, I was one of those scientists you speak of so highly (I spent years studying Einstein’s Theory of Relativity, and Quantum Theory, have a Masters degree in Mathematics, was a member of the Mensa, was offered a PhD scholarship). Many Research Scientists resign because Mostly the work is monotonous, boring, very unproductive, disheartening ......and paid for by free-enterprise taxpayers.
    What you don’t seem to understand is that without small and large businesses paying taxes, there would be no public schools, no universities, no government, no roads. Alone tourism in Europe employs about 15% of the workforce. Adam Smith. Read Alan Greenspan’s latest book about Capitalism versus Socialism. You might slowly understand. You are right though, the authors don’t claim Biden ought to win, they claim Biden is „on track to win“.
    - Lester Soss Oct 31, 2020
      
      I don't think anyone takes Greenspan seriously anymore. He was a failure as a Fed chairman; as an economists; and finally, as a commentator. For example, his admonition that the first fiscal stimulus after the 2008 crash would lead to massive inflation was well off the mark. Had you followed his advice and shorted Government bonds, you would now be living in those homeless camps that are so despised by the Right.
      
      Also, I think your assertion that, "... without small and large businesses paying taxes, there would be no public schools, no universities, no government, no roads," trivializes a complex problem that has yet to be solved: specifically, what is the relationship between capital, government, productivity, innovation, and labour. Ayn Rand slogans does not constitute reasoned analysis.
      
      I think you missed my point about small businesses. It was simple: I'm not sure that tourism, prostitution, and other "services" really add to the society. This is especially true in a world where the limitation of resources is becoming increasing apparent. Should the society employ a person to serve me food or plant a tree.
      
      Now you may think that everyone looking out for his own interests will ultimately lead to a better world. But climate change puts that idea to rest.
      
      And thank you for admitting in the last sentence that you missed the point of the original column.
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