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俄罗斯和丝绸之路方针

马德里—乌克兰的瓦解让西方面临三大对外政策挑战:孤立的俄罗斯的危险、中国冷漠之谜以及新思想的普遍缺乏。克服这些挑战需要不同政治制度和国家利益的国家齐心协力加强合作、建立信任。中国国家主席习近平的丝绸之路经济带颇有可借鉴之处。

欧洲和美国对乌克兰危机的反应是失败的,体现在两个方面。首先也是最重要的是反应不力,这不啻于示弱,从而束缚了其扭转俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之势(在策略上,这一事实已经被接受)和遏制其面向东乌克兰的侵略行为的能力。与此同时,定向制裁和外交抵制加剧了俄罗斯的国际孤立,不利于构建功能性关系的长期目标。

坚持原则(包括通过实施严厉制裁)对西方来说十分关键,但务实也同样重要。毕竟,一个弱势、孤立的俄罗斯要比一个强大、融入国际社会的俄罗斯危险得多。此外,不可否认的是,与俄罗斯的关系现在已经破裂,互信程度已降至苏联解体以来的最低点。

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