避免美国新衰退

美国剑桥—美国可能在2013年步入衰退。即使可以避免坠下“财政悬崖”,过快削减赤字的拙劣政治妥协也可能将已然相当疲软的经济拖入衰退。但逐渐实施的税收减免总额上限(所谓的税收支出)可以和福利支出改革一起构成美国所需要的能够避免再次衰退的财政整合方案。

去年,美国经济以低于2%的增速蹒跚前行,2013年的前景也一样暗淡,即便没有财政悬崖冲击也是如此。这样的扩张速度太慢,不能抵消财政悬崖所带来的税率提高和支出削减,后两者将让明年总需求下降6 000亿美元(约为GDP的4%),后年更甚。

奥巴马总统的财政悬崖替代方案将大幅提高薪酬最高的2%人群的税率,限制他们的税收减免优惠,如今,该群体贡献了联邦个人所得税总量的45%以上。他的预算还将增加公司税,结束当前的工资税“豁免期”,这意味着对所有工薪族增加2%的税收。

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