Una cura accidental para Iraq

Los médicos utilizan la palabra “crisis” para describir el punto en el que el paciente o empieza a recuperarse o muere. El paciente iraquí del presidente George W. Bush parece haber llegado a ese punto. La mayoría de los comentaristas parecen opinar que la última receta de Bush –un aumento de 20,000 soldados adicionales para aplastar a las milicias de Bagdad—en el mejor de los casos sólo pospondrá la muerte inevitable de su sueño de un Iraq democrático. Con todo, ciertos factores que están más allá del control de Bush y que él no creó (al menos no de manera intencional) podrían terminar por salvar a Iraq de la fatalidad.

Un factor clave es que, por primera vez desde que Estados Unidos e Inglaterra invadieron Iraq, los líderes árabes sunitas están apoyando un plan militar estadounidense para ese país. Esos líderes sunitas viven con el pánico del terremoto geopolítico que cualquier desintegración de la autoridad política en Bagdad provocaría, y creen que inevitablemente se desencadenaría una guerra civil total que no respetaría las fronteras internacionales.

Por supuesto, los Estados Unidos han estado fomentando esa creencia entre los líderes sunitas. El reciente viaje por las capitales del Medio Oriente de la Secretaria de Estado, Condoleezza Rice, ayudó a correr la voz en Egipto, Jordania, Arabia Saudita y los Estados del Golfo de que un fracaso o retiro repentino de los Estados Unidos los desestabilizaría con seguridad. Dado el frágil control que esos líderes tienen sobre sus sociedades, las advertencias de Estados Unidos se han tomado en serio.

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