按揭风险的正确权重

阿布扎比—自从14,000年前采集狩猎部落开始建设栖身之所以来,房屋拥有权就成为社会和经济地位崇高的标志。如今美国建立了巨大的金融机构系统以促进房屋拥有,经济学家、银行家、政客,当然还有屋主本身,都热切地追踪者房价指标。但是,正如我们最近所看到的,除非按揭风险得到正确计算,否则拥有房子之梦很容易演变为经济噩梦。

按揭债务已成为整个发达世界最大的家庭负债项。在金融危机之前的十年中,美国按揭债务几乎增加了三倍,而实体经济仅仅增长三分之一。在2007年高峰期,美国按揭债务高达10.6万亿美元——比中国和印度GDP加起来还要多一倍有余。

自20世纪70年代中期以来,发达经济体共爆发过六次大型银行危机,它们全部与房地产泡沫破裂有关。房地产价格崩溃也是新兴市场危机的主要原因,1997—98年亚洲崩盘就是如此。研究表明,与房地产泡沫破裂有关的危机的产出损失比房地产价格保持坚挺的情况要大一到两倍。此外,房地产泡沫破裂会让衰退期延长近三年。

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