美国战痕累累的经济

    纽约--有人说在即将来临的美国选举中有两大议题,就是伊拉克战争和经济。当伊拉克战事比预料的要好、而经济要差的时候,经济问题掩盖了战争问题。但是这两个哪一个也不好。在某些意义上只有一个议题,那就是伊拉克战争。这一战争加剧了美国经济问题。当世界上最大经济体生病的时候,而且病得不轻,整个世界都遭殃。

    人们以往认为战争有利于经济。毕竟,很多人认为第二次世界大战帮助全球经济摆脱了大萧条。但是,我们至少从凯恩斯时代以来知道如何更为有效地刺激经济,而且其方法也提高长期的生产效劳和提高生活水平。

    这一场战争尤其对经济不利有三个原因。首先,它造成石油价格上升。美国开战的时候,石油价格是25美元不到,而期货市场预计价格会在十年内保持这一水平。期货交易员了解中国和其他新兴市场的增长。但是他们预计主要来自中东产油国的石油供给与需求增长同步。

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