美国的支点岌岌可危

马德里——太平洋还是中东?这是美国当前面临的首要战略问题。美国总统奥巴马在金边会见亚洲领导人时加沙发生暴力事件是对美国两难困境的完美诠释。奥巴马非但无法关注亚洲这个美国外交政策的“支点”,反而被迫在与埃及和以色列领导人的谈判中耗费大量时间,并指派国务卿希拉里·克林顿离开亚洲,以便促成在加沙地区达成停火协议。

上述两个吸引美国关注的地缘政治焦点中,一个代表未来、另一个则代表过去。尽管亚洲在美国总统竞选中发挥了重要作用,中国的崛起问题被反复提及,但美国数十年来一直深陷于中东问题。除永恒不变的巴以冲突外,伊拉克的混乱局势、阿拉伯之春、叙利亚内战和伊朗目前的核僵局都吸引着美国的注意力。

如果伊朗危机失控,美国的外交重点将不再是亚洲问题。但如果能以外交手段解决和伊朗的争端,中东问题或许可能像奥巴马总统明确期望的那样转移到不那么重要的位置。因此问题在于美国是否会在对中东能源依赖度日益降低的同时被该地区爆发的另一场战争所波及。

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