¿Adiós al Medio Oriente?

PARÍS – Hay una versión estratégica que se ha estado consolidando desde hace tiempo: los Estados Unidos se están independizando en cuestión de energéticos, lo que ha dado lugar a su retirada del Medio Oriente y ha justificado su viraje estratégico a Asia. Esta visión parece lógicamente correcta pero, ¿lo es?

Los Estados Unidos, ávidos de energía, han dependido durante mucho tiempo del mercado global para satisfacer la demanda interna. En 2005, los Estados Unidos importaron el 60% de la energía que consumieron. No obstante, desde entonces el porcentaje de las importaciones ha disminuido y debería seguir haciéndolo. Se prevé que los Estados Unidos sean autosuficientes en materia de energéticos para 2020 y se conviertan en exportadores de petróleo para 2030.

Este escenario le daría a los Estados Unidos tres enormes ventajas. Mejoraría la competitividad económica del país, sobre todo frente a Europa, debido a los costos menores de la extracción de gas de esquisto. También reduciría la exposición de los Estados Unidos al descontento creciente en el mundo árabe. Por último, aumentaría la vulnerabilidad relativa de China, su principal rival estratégico, que depende cada vez más del suministro energético del Medio Oriente.

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