Adeus, Médio Oriente?

PARIS – Desde há algum tempo a esta parte tem ganho força uma certa visão estratégica: os Estados Unidos estão a tornar-se independentes em termos energéticos, abrindo o caminho para a sua retirada política do Médio Oriente e justificando a sua “rotação” estratégica no sentido da Ásia. Esta perspectiva parece intuitivamente correcta, mas será mesmo assim?

A faminta de energia América depende desde há muito do mercado global para satisfazer a sua procura interna. Em 2005, os EUA importaram 60% da energia que consumiram. Desde então, no entanto, a proporção de energia importada diminuiu, e essa tendência deve continuar. Espera-se que os EUA se tornem auto-suficientes em termos energéticos em 2020, e que se transformem num exportador de petróleo em 2030.

Este cenário proporcionaria aos EUA três vantagens enormes. Melhoraria a competitividade económica dos EUA, especialmente no que respeita à Europa, dados os menores custos envolvidos na extracção de petróleo a partir do xisto betuminoso. Também diminuiria a exposição da América ao crescente desconforto no mundo Árabe. Finalmente, aumentaria a vulnerabilidade do principal rival estratégico da América, a China, que se está a tornar cada vez mais dependente dos fornecimentos de energia do Médio Oriente.

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