拜拜,中东?

巴黎—不久前,一种战略观点开始流行:美国这在变得能源独立,为其从中东的战略和撤退扫清道路,也为其战略“支点”移向亚洲造势。乍一看,这一观点无比正确。但真的如此吗?

渴望能源的美国长期以来一直依靠全球市场满足国内需求。2005年,美国所消费的能源中60%来自进口。不过,至此以后,进口比重便有所降低,未来仍将维持这一趋势。据估计,到2020年,美国将实现能源自给,并在2030年成为石油出口国。

这一形势将给美国带来三大优势。这将赋予美国经济竞争力,特别是相对欧洲的竞争力,因为美国提取页岩气的成本更低。这还将减少美国对日益动荡的阿拉伯世界的风险暴露。最后,这还将增加美国主要战略竞争对手中国的相对弱势,后者正日益依赖中东的能源供给。

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