美国针锋相对的未来

最近我听说了一件趣事:美国的国际金融经济学家和国内宏观经济学家对美国经常帐目巨额赤字可能造成的后果持有迥然不同,甚至是截然相反的观点。国际金融经济学者认为巨额赤字可能带来金融危机,紧随其后的也许就是漫长而痛苦的国内衰退。而国内宏观经济学家的看法却恰恰相反,他们认为美元即将贬值非但不是一次危机,还是一次加速成长的难得机会。

国内宏观经济学家的观点大致如下:未来的某个时刻,国外央行会不愿继续为了保持美元价值而购进大量以美元计价的证券。如果他们停止大规模的美元购买计划,美元的价值就会下跌¾而且是狂跌不止。

可是按照上述观点,随着美元价值的下滑,美国出口对国外的吸引力就会增加,美国的就业也将增长,劳动力会被重新分配到重新赢得活力的出口部门。这种情况将与放弃固定汇率并允许英镑对德国马克贬值后英国的状况非常相似,或者可以类比20世纪80年代的美国,当时的美元对英镑、德国马克特别是日元都出现了大幅度的贬值。

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