Las elecciones estadounidenses y la economía global

STANFORD – A medida que las elecciones estadounidenses se acercan, y en las que el presidente Barack Obama se posiciona ligeramente adelante de su oponente republicano, el exgobernador de Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, los encuestadores consideran que todavía está muy cerrada la competencia por el control de la Presidencia y el Senado de los Estados Unidos como para pronunciarse; aunque es probable que la Cámara de Representantes quede en manos del Partido Republicano. Las diferencias entre los candidatos son significativas y tendrán un fuerte impacto en la política económica estadounidense y global, aunque la promulgación de sus programas dependerá de la composición del Congreso.

Las diferencias más importantes entre los dos candidatos se pueden resumir de la siguiente manera:

Gasto. Obama ha aumentado espectacularmente el gasto. Es muy probable que siga con muchos de sus programas temporales (como Milton Friedman alguna vez señaló, “no hay nada más permanente que un programa temporal de gobierno.”); grandes probabilidades de que será el gobierno el que escoja a los ganadores y perdedores en el tema de la energía sostenible; ampliación del gasto en educación e infraestructura, y reducción sustancial del gasto en defensa.

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