Paul Lachine

美国的经济僵局

坎布里奇——美国似乎陷入了危险的经济停滞陷阱。共和党和民主党均拒绝在预算问题上让步,这让美国政府无法处理大规模财政赤字和快速上升的国民债务问题。事实上,国会预算办公室估计,国民债务将在未来十年内上升至GDP的82%,即2008年水平的两倍。

此外,这一估计是建立在十分乐观的经济增长和低利率假设上的。如果增长率没有那么高,名义利率没有那么低,则债务比率将在2021年突破100%,在2030年超过150%。

政府债务上升越来越快的一个主要原因是美国人口在迅速老龄化,这导致全民退休金和医保项目——社会福利和医疗保险(Social Security and Medicare)——成本节节攀升。大多数专家认为,欲限制债务增长,就必须降低这些“福利”项目占GDP的比重,同时提高税收占GDP的比重。

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