Amerika a Evropa

Mnozí lidé a vlády v Evropě, frustrovaní politikami Bushovy administrativy, doufají v zásadní změnu americké zahraniční politiky po nadcházejících prezidentských volbách. Muselo by ale dojít ke středně velkému politickému zázraku, aby se tyto naděje nezklamaly, a takový zázrak nepřijde – ať už bude zvolen kdokoliv.

Bushova administrativa udělala celou řadu zahraničněpolitických kiksů s dalekosáhlými důsledky. Bush ale nevymyslel americký unilateralismus ani nevyvolal transatlantickou roztržku mezi Spojenými státy a Evropou. Jistěže, Bush oba trendy utvrdil, ale jejich skutečné příčiny spočívají v objektivních historických okolnostech, zejména v americkém postavení jediné světové velmoci po roce 1989 a slabosti Evropy, již si sama způsobila. Za předpokladu, že Amerika zůstane jedinou světovou velmocí, nebude příští prezident USA ani schopen, ani ochoten základní rámec americké zahraniční politiky změnit.

Samozřejmě že bude důležité, kdo v souboji o prezidentský úřad zvítězí: buď kandidát, u něhož se očekává, že bude pokračovat v Bushově zahraniční politice, anebo někdo připravený k novému začátku. V prvním případě se transatlantická trhlina dramaticky prohloubí. Další čtyři, nebo dokonce osm let politiky USA à la Bush by podstatě transatlantického spojenectví způsobilo takovou újmu, že by to ohrožovalo samotnou jeho existenci.

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