Ucrania y más allá

GÉNOVA – La crisis ucraniana ha dejado de ser grave para tornarse crónica. La principal pregunta, ¿se atreverá Rusia a invadir Ucrania continental?, ya tiene respuesta: ahora, no. Entonces, ¿cuál es la situación?

Obviamente, el Kremlin no esperaba la reacción firme y unida de Occidente frente a la anexión de Crimea. La llamada telefónica del presidente Vladimir Putin al presidente estadounidense Barack Obama el 28 de marzo, claramente demostró el deseo ruso de conversar sobre el «desescalamiento». Los principales objetivos de Putin ahora son la eliminación del bloqueo ucraniano de Transnistria, la región disidente prorusa de Moldavia y la «federalización» ucraniana (un eufemismo para la estrategia encubierta que busca ganar el control de las regiones este y sur del país).

Pero un pronto retorno a la normalidad no es posible. La invasión rusa y la anexión de Crimea han disparado cambios tectónicos no deliberados en la política internacional. Si bien aún no se definen las implicaciones para el largo plazo, las consecuencias inmediatas están claras.

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