Ucrania y más allá

Apr 21, 2014 Alexander Likhotal

GÉNOVA – La crisis ucraniana ha dejado de ser grave para tornarse crónica. La principal pregunta, ¿se atreverá Rusia a invadir Ucrania continental?, ya tiene respuesta: ahora, no. Entonces, ¿cuál es la situación?

Obviamente, el Kremlin no esperaba la reacción firme y unida de Occidente frente a la anexión de Crimea. La llamada telefónica del presidente Vladimir Putin al presidente estadounidense Barack Obama el 28 de marzo, claramente demostró el deseo ruso de conversar sobre el «desescalamiento». Los principales objetivos de Putin ahora son la eliminación del bloqueo ucraniano de Transnistria, la región disidente prorusa de Moldavia y la «federalización» ucraniana (un eufemismo para la estrategia encubierta que busca ganar el control de las regiones este y sur del país).

Pero un pronto retorno a la normalidad no es posible. La invasión rusa y la anexión de Crimea han disparado cambios tectónicos no deliberados en la política internacional. Si bien aún no se definen las implicaciones para el largo plazo, las consecuencias inmediatas están claras.

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Velko Simeonov Apr 23, 2014

Yet another serious "analyst" seeing the world in black and white. The north-atlantic community is dressed in white and the ruskies in dark black, one side as a force of good and the other as a force for bad. And as in any other fairytale the good will prevail and the evil empire will be crushed. A rather pointless collection of words?
- Carl Buzawa Apr 24, 2014
  
  Velko how do you see it? Russia in 1994 guaranteed the territorial sovereignty of the Ukraine--they just annexed it...consistent?
  Now they send troops with modern weapons (AKA GRU or Spaetnetz troops) across the borders of the Ukraine taking over buildings, manning barricades, killing pro Ukrainian politicians--straight out of the 1930's playbook.
  You may label something you disagree with as a "pointless collection of words, I would label your response simply as pro Russian rhetoric--as I have seen on many of these boards where the Russians appear unwilling to acknowledge that their government is being the aggressor in this situation.
  PS I do believe that Likotel's analysis is largely on point, although I tend to believe sooner rather than later Russia will actually invade with some sort of pretext--similar to the German soldiers in Polish uniforms attacking their comrade's radio station in Danzig.
  
  Putin pretty much gave this away in his Russian language remarks when he called the border lands "The New Russia". Similarly you notice he didn't hold Crimea until the Uraine held new elections to select what everyone would see as a new legitimate government--no he annexed it to Russia. in violation of the 1994 treaty that Russia signed.
  
  You may be a Russian patriot but it is impossible for non Russian patriots to see this as anything other than naked aggression.
  
  Having said this, the USA has made lots of mistakes in recent years, especially after the terrorist bombings of 9/11--but none involved annexing the territory of another country--- but major ones, nonetheless. I think this post, as others on the topic however address the Ukrainian crisis--OR would you prefer to call it the "Crisis in New Russia?"
  
  I realize that these days most Russian posters don't have the freedom to post anything remotely critical of their government but when you don't acknowledge any legitimacy to the other side you become irrelevant to the real discussion.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko Apr 22, 2014

It seems we're going to see a war of attrition before political leaders are going to start looking for a real solution to the crisis. In this sense, it is similar to the Cold War when one party was waiting to another party to cave in. This time however it is not clear how Russia is going to win in the end. It seems that all fundamentals (economic, military, political) are not in Russia's favor.
- Carl Buzawa Apr 24, 2014
  
  Long term you might be right but Putin, if smart could settle for the Balkanization of the Ukraine into semi autonomous regions that are really led by fear of the little green men you see with sub machine guns at each occupied town, supplemented with the assassination of pro Ukrainian politicians in this area. The USA's current President nor Angela Merkel would not likely deploy enough meaningful threats to change the mind of a cruel, bloody but crafty former KGB operative.
  
  My hope though is that this reenergizes NATO to bring the European forces up to where they should be, and to diversify their energy sources as quickly as possible (by fracking, importing nat gas from Algeria, Qatar and the USA as well as reminding all of the other neighbors of Russia, like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia to rearm and be extremely wary of similar "spontaneous" outbreaks of discontented Russian nationals
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