Dependência Mútua Assegurada

LONDRES – Durante a Guerra Fria, a certeza da “destruição mútua assegurada” conduziu a corrida às armas nucleares para longe da catástrofe: um potencial atacante enfrentaria a retaliação imediata, terminando inevitavelmente na aniquilação de ambos os lados. Hoje, acontece uma corrida muito diferente – uma corrida pelos recursos vitais da terra, que ameaça minar a estabilidade em regiões críticas do mundo. A crescente dependência de uns países relativamente aos alimentos, à água, e à energia de outros requer que a resposta global à sustentabilidade seja levada ao mais alto nível político.

Ao contrário da corrida às armas nucleares do século vinte, a agenda da segurança dos recursos não é linear. A destruição mútua assegurada era explicitamente assumida durante a Guerra Fria, em declarações de ambos os lados. Na corrida pelos recursos que define o século vinte e um, nenhum interveniente ameaça os outros interessados, de forma directa ou indirecta, com a diminuição das exportações de alimentos ou energia, mas os riscos sistémicos são suportados por todos.

Os países tornaram-se inevitavelmente interdependentes, e as mudanças climáticas, a pressão sobre a água e a perda de resiliência ecológica contribuem para o aumento de volatilidade desta dependência mútua. Num mundo de recursos limitados e escassos, os países e as empresas serão forçados a tomar decisões que afectarão a segurança uns dos outros.

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