Scosse di assestamento dal Giappone

NEW HAVEN – La devastazione, sia materiale che umana, causata dal terremoto e dallo tsunami in Giappone è abissale. Sebbene sia impossibile, a questo punto, misurare con precisione l’entità complessiva dei danni, si può comunque iniziare a valutare le potenziali conseguenze sul resto dell’Asia e sulle altre principali economie a livello mondiale.

Secondo una visione ristretta dell’impatto economico del terremoto, il Giappone è ormai un paese di poca rilevanza da un punto di vista economico. Dopotutto, più di vent’anni di crescita lenta della produzione giapponese hanno ridotto in modo significativo il suo impatto progressivo sulla più ampia economia globale. Il disastro potrebbe comportare conseguenze sproporzionate sulla catena dell’offerta della linea di prodotti dell’industria automobilistica e dell’informatica, come ad esempio i flash drive, anche se un’eventuale interruzione di produzione tenderebbe comunque ad essere temporanea.  

Le due più grandi economie hanno, apparentemente, poco da temere. Il Giappone rappresenta solo il 5% delle esportazioni americane e l’8% di quelle cinesi. Anche nell’eventualità in cui si verificasse il peggior scenario di una totale interruzione dell’economia giapponese, le ripercussioni dirette sulle economie statunitense e cinese sarebbero comunque lievi, con una riduzione di non più di qualche decimo di punto percentuale dei tassi di crescita annuali.

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