L'onde de choc japonaise et le reste du monde

NEW HAVEN – Les pertes humaines et matérielles dues au tremblement de terre et au tsunami au Japon sont immenses. Il est impossible actuellement d'évaluer avec tant soit peu de précision l'étendue des dégâts. Il est néanmoins possible de se faire une idée des effets latents de cette catastrophe sur le reste de l'Asie et sur les grandes économies de la planète.

Si l'on  prend les choses par le petit bout de la lorgnette, on peut dire que du fait de sa situation, le choc qui frappe le Japon n'aura guère de conséquence sur le reste du monde. Un phénomène inhabituel - plus de 20 ans de quasi stagnation - a fortement réduit son influence sur l'économie mondiale. Le désastre pourrait avoir de graves conséquences sur la chaîne logistique dans l'automobile et dans l'informatique (par exemple sur la production des clés USB), mais les perturbations ne devraient pas durer très longtemps.

En apparence les deux premières puissances économiques de la planète n'ont rien à craindre. Le Japon ne représente que 5% des exportations des USA et 8% des exportations de la Chine. Dans le pire des cas, un arrêt total de l'économie japonaise, les répercussions seront faibles pour ces deux pays, ne diminuant que de quelques dixièmes de point de pourcentage leur taux de croissance.

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