希腊违约之后

卡布里奇——
市场已经清楚地觉察到希腊最终将拖欠其债务,不论是对私人的还是公众的债权人。对此希腊政府、欧盟委员会及国际货币基金组织则一律持否认态度。政治家们宁愿将公款投向私人资金不再流向的领域,从而延缓这个不可避免的结果。这样做使得债权人的假想得以保持,即他们所持希腊债券的票面价值不会减少。反过来说,这样做也能避免引发对银行更多的资金需求。

尽管希腊将尽快收到由欧盟和国际货币基金组织所提供的额外的低息贷款,其债务很快无法维持下去。这就是为什么私人持有的希腊债券的市场利率和信贷违约互换的价格都预示着大规模的拖欠即将到来。

伴随着年度财政预算持续性大幅缩减,此次大规模的拖欠实际上是重建希腊财政的可持续性的需要。具体说来,即使拖欠能使一国的负债降低到GDP的60%,若要防止负债比率再次升高,希腊仍然需要将其年度预算赤字从目前的十个百分点降低到约三个百分点。那样的话,希腊就只能利用国内的资源为政府的未来年度赤字筹措资金。

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