Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us

非洲仍在冉冉升起

约翰内斯堡——非洲经济体的蜜月期是否已经结束?不到十年前,随着许多国家取得惊人的GDP增长和发展,非洲大陆的经济之梦似乎正在变成现实。现在,随着非洲大陆在充满挑战的外部环境面前的脆弱性逐渐显现,现有的增长速度已经很难保持。

中国经济增长放缓、大宗商品价格暴跌以及不止一次安全危机的拖累下,非洲的年度总体GDP增长在2010到2015年仅为3.3%,这一速度仅能勉强跟上人口增长——与2000到2008年4.9%的记录相比速度大幅放缓。

但深层次观察表明局势也许不像看上去那样严重,得出这样的结论有两个主要原因。首先,虽然平均增速有所回落,但某些非洲国家在近年来实现了蓬勃发展。事实上,石油出口国经济摇摇欲坠以及萨赫勒和北非地区爆发安全危机已经将2010年以来的GDP总量拉了下来;但在非洲其他地区,GDP发展呈加速之势,从2000到2010年的4.1%增长到2010到2015年的4.4%。

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