Африканский путь освобождения от нищеты

ПЕКИН – Все страны с низким уровнем дохода имеют потенциал для динамичного экономического роста. Мы знаем это, потому что не раз видели, как это происходит: бедная, аграрная экономика за одно-два поколения превращается в урбанистическую экономику со средним или высоким уровнем дохода. Ключом является попадание в окно возможности проведения индустриализации, которое возникает из-за переноса легкой промышленности из стран с высоким уровнем дохода. Так было в девятнадцатом и двадцатом веках, и это остается верным для сегодняшнего дня.

Япония ухватилась за свою возможность в годы после окончания второй мировой войны, использовав трудоемкие отрасли, такие как текстиль и простая электроника, чтобы двигать свою экономику до тех пор, пока рост стоимости рабочей силы не подорвал сравнительное преимущество в этих секторах. Этот сдвиг в дальнейшем позволил другим азиатским экономикам с низким уровнем дохода – Южной Корее, Тайваню, Гонконгу, Сингапуру и, в какой-то степени, Малайзии и Тайланду – последовать за Японией.

Китай, разумеется, является последней экономикой в регионе, которая последовала по этому проторенному пути. После более чем трех десятилетий головокружительного экономического роста он превратился из одной из беднейших стран на Земле в крупнейшую мировую экономику. И теперь, когда Китай тоже начинает терять свое сравнительное преимущество в трудоемких отраслях, другие развивающиеся страны – особенно в Африке – готовы занять его место.

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