非洲脱贫之路

北京—所有低收入国家都有实现充满活力的经济增长的潜力。我们知道这一点,因为过去曾经一再发生这一幕:贫穷的农村经济在一两代人的时间里摇身一变成为中等收入甚至高收入城市经济。关键是抓住高收入国家轻型制造业重新布局带来的工业化机会窗口。在十九和二十世纪是如此,今天仍然是如此。

日本在二战后抓住了这一机会,用劳动密集型行业(如防止和简单电子)驱动经济,直至劳动力成本遏制了这些行业的比较优势。接着,这一转变又让低收入亚洲经济体——韩国、中国台湾、中国香港、新加坡以及某种程度上的马来西亚和泰国——效仿了日本的榜样。

当然,中国是这条老路上的最新旅客。在经历了三十多年的高速增长后,中国已经从世界最贫穷国家之一转变为世界最大经济体。而如今,中国也开始失去其在劳动密集型行业的比较优势,其他发展中国家——特别是非洲国家——即将取代中国的位置。

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