La idea ilusa sobre el comercio

LONDRES – Desde el año 2008, el comercio mundial ha crecido un poco más lentamente que el PIB mundial. La Ronda de Negociaciones de Doha  de la Organización Mundial del Comercio terminó siendo un fracaso. Las negociaciones comerciales trasatlánticas y transpacíficas están progresando lentamente, frenadas por la resistencia que ejercen los intereses especiales. Sin embargo, a pesar de que muchos expertos temen que el proteccionismo menoscabe la globalización, y amenace con obstaculizar el crecimiento económico mundial, puede que la desaceleración del crecimiento del comercio mundial sea un hecho inevitable, y que la liberalización del comercio sea cada vez menos importante.

Sin duda, por un período de 65 años, el rápido crecimiento del comercio ha jugado un papel vital en el desarrollo económico, con el pronunciado descenso de los aranceles industriales promedio en las economías avanzadas desde un nivel superior al 30% a uno por debajo del 5%.

La creación del mercado único europeo facilitó el aumento del comercio intra-europeo. Japón, Corea del Sur y Taiwán alcanzaron una rápida convergencia económica sobre la base de un crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones. China ha seguido el mismo camino durante los últimos 30 años. En el período comprendido entre los años 1990 al 2008, el comercio creció dos veces más rápido que la producción mundial.

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