Un monde avec plusieurs devises de réserve

BERKELEY – Décrocher le rôle de  monnaie de réserve est souvent décrit comme une compétition où le gagnant remporte la mise. Dans cette perspective, il n’y aurait de place que pour une seule et unique monnaie de réserve internationale. Qui sera le gagnant, telle est la question.

La logique du marché, dit-on, décidera du résultat. Pour les importateurs et exportateurs, indiquer des prix dans la même devise – disons le dollar – que d’autres importateurs et exportateurs permet d’éviter des malentendus avec les clients. Pour les banques centrales, détenir des réserves de change dans la même devise que d’autres banques centrales signifie détenir l’actif le plus liquide. Si tout le monde achète, vend et détient des dollars, il est payant de faire de même puisque les marchés dont les actifs sont libellés en dollars seront les plus profonds.

Même s’il est possible que survienne un point de rupture où tout le monde passe d’une devise à une autre, la structure en réseaux du système monétaire international, affirme-t-on à nouveau, ne laisse de place que pour une seule devise de réserve internationale à part entière.

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